Situational outlook and projections ahead of 2023 : Time to act!

Situational outlook and projections ahead of 2023 polls: Time to act!

Introduction 

Our duty as intellectuals is not necessarily to ridicule people’s efforts or prove that we know better.Rather we invest our energies in providing ideas, manufacturing consent and explaining complex issues as they unfold in our societies.Thus whenever you read my work take it as either advice or explanation.2023 is less than 13 months away and Zanu PF has already started assembling its rigging machinery.Zanu PF has so far began a series of strategic deployments in institutions that are critical to the election.On the other hand, opposition is ceased with repression and efforts to regroup.What is dangerous is that the situational projections signal a turn towards the ugly usual and the opposition is silent and stationary. 

Background 

Last month Afrobarometer predicted that Chamisa would defeat Mnangagwa in upcoming polls by 33% to 30% margin.Much of this information is based on surveys and interviews carried out in the country .The think tank also established that citizens expressed concerns on the economy, human rights and democracy.These therefore become the major issues that define the voting attitudes of the electorate.Both opposition and ruling party are centering their campaigns on the aforementioned and as it seems the incumbent has nothing on opposition.Much of Zimbabwe’s population is young with ages 18-35 constituting nearly 67.7% of the total population. Although they are majority this age group has a high political abstinence.This leaves the deciding to those aged 45 and above who constitute more than 50% of the voter turnout and most of them are women located in rural areas.Majority of the rural population live in poverty and poor services.Their sustenance is based heavily on agriculture and local commerce.CCC as a party have made efforts in penetrating the rural base through holding rallies, community meetings etc. But the election demands more from the opposition because this data has put the regime in panic and they have accelerated their motion on winning the election through unorthodox means.

In the past weeks a lot transpired in the Zimbabwean political sphere, from arbitrary arrests of labor leaders Obert Masaraore and Robson Chere to the controversial ZEC appointments.The bulk of this has a bearing on the context, process and outcome of the much awaited 2023 winter elections and the most affected actor in that conversation is the opposition.It is a known fact that Zanu PF doesn’t stand a chance with opposition in a free and fair election, thus they do all they can to manipulate the process.

From the beginning and birth of Zimbabwe Zanu Pf has entrenched its rule through military-party conflation and party-sate conflation.The aiding factor to this scenario is the grand old liberation war narrative and experience that the party gained.Most senior members in the police and army are war veterans and products of the ruling Zanu Pf who were strategically deployed to serve the purpose of regime survival and aid power retention.The evidence of this claim is founded in the events of November 2017 when the army intervened in the succession politics of the ruling party and state.One can also refer to the declarations made by General Vitalis Zvinavashe in 2002 and the Mgagao declaration in 1975 (See my article on the gun leads politics). Some of the military bigwigs have been assimilated into the Zanu PF national structures.Zvinavashe served as a Zanu PF central committee member and even contested for office on the ruling party ticket. The latest to feature in such were the Vice President and Minister of health Dr. CGDN Chiwenga and General Rugeje. 

And also because of our legal framework Zimbabwe has a winner takes all system whereby the victor in elections gets to form a government without necessarily including opposition.Therefore Zanu PF as the ruling party they determine the composition of government and assume deployment authority in state and government departments. 

To add more, Section 110(2d) of the constitution of Zimbabwe give the president the power to appoint ministers and public servants who serve in the constitutional commissions.All those he appoints are more loyal to him and the party than they are to the constitution and citizens. This therefore compromises independence and autonomy of state institutions even if they undergo public interviews as required by Section 237 of the constitution.Section 238(4) further stipulates that for members of the Zimbabwe electoral commission they should people of integrity, competent in their experience in the public and private sector.Then disqualifications are only based on the fact that one is (a) a public officer (but not a judge) (b) employee of a metropolitan or provincial council or member of a statutory body and government controlled entity.There is very little to no discussion about conflict of interest. 

On account of the above, Emerson Mnangagwa in his capacity as President of the republic, head of state and government, and Leader (as well as deployee) of Zanu Pf appoints those that serve as commissioners in ZEC. ZEC is responsible for managing the elections and referendums in Zimbabwe. It is an obvious fact that he appoints people who are loyal to him and his party.    

 On Thursday 7 July 2022 Mnangagwa appointed his deputy‘s daughter Millicent Mohadi Ambrose as a ZEC commissioner. The move was received with criticism and outcry in various circles.One example is that from former Tourism Minister Walter Muzembi who castigated the appointees as too young and immature.I strongly disagree with him. In my learning, there is no such thing as too young, for as long as one is capable and competent then they are good for the job. Our politics should be inclusive and open to young people as they are leaders of both the present and future.The inclusion of young people speaks well to generational renewal and institutional continuity. Section 20 of the constitution charges government with the duty to empower and include youth in all spheres. 

However, trouble begins when we closely question the competency and certainty of independence of the selected individual.She is daughter to the deputy president of a political party that has vested interests in the coming election thus a clash in the form of conflict of interest is observed .Corporate governance requires us to ensure that institutions work independently and also with public confidence.Based on Zanu PF‘s track record that is deficient.The intrusive nature of the ruling party does not allow such.The same goes for how ED is appointing his son to senior positions in the army. The same army that executes and initiates power retention strategies of Zanu Pf.To that end, electoral integrity of the 2023 polls becomes subject to question.The failure by the rules and standing orders committee (dominated by Zanu PF legislators) to critically look into this, characteristically shows 2 things. The first one being that we have incompetent legislators who don’t give heed to such critical issues and because of their two-thirds majority Zanu Pf uses parliament as its rubberstamping machine.Parliament is weak as an institution for as long as Zanu Pf enjoys majority.

Because of such advantages, the ruling party has carte blanche to rigging this election unless opposition takes action.Rigging does not only occur in the ballot  but in such processes and institutions .Zanu Pf used the same advantage of parliamentary tyranny to enact the 50% +1 rule which they used to deny Tsvangirayi his chance to lead in 2008 . 

Mohadi’s competency is also doubted because of her low hanging performance during the interviews.The nepotism and rubberstamp is exposed.On another scale of this conversation corruption and state capture are components of the regime’s survival strategy.The same happened a few months ago when ZEC recruited military personnel as part of its team. As I mentioned before the militarization of party and state has worked well in oiling Zanu Pf’s rigging machinery.The military itself has ordained itself as apolitical god who decides who governs and who leads which party in Zimbabwe.This is against the prescriptions of the civil-military relations theory which clearly instructs that the army should keep a professional distance from politics.So it is clear that 2023 elections will not be free and fair. 

Characterizing status quo and threats ahead  

ZANU PF is a competitive authoritarian regime that uses elections as source of legitimacy. My comrades in opposition are complicit in allowing this to happen. Conscious of the fact that state institutions and courts are captured.On the other hand, the Mwonzora led MDC Alliance is an enabler, the Chamisa led Citizens Coalition for Change should approach SADC, AU and UN on the matter.A compromised electoral body cannot be allowed to proceed and gamble with the will of the people.There is very little hope in SADC and AU intervening as they tend to side with the incumbent and are limited by factors of sovereignty but trying won’t kill.

Already the situational projections have shown that the regime is going for broke and will stop at a sign only from God .The opposition has a great task, before participating in these elections they should demand that ZEC gets disbanded and a new  election management body with less conflicted or captured individuals be established.The army should also be included in these conversations and be ensured to retreat to the barracks and all those that have taken part in politics be held accountable under laws of the land. 

Actor analysis (How did we get here?)

 We got here because of a reactionary opposition crop.Despite the recalls and repression opposition comrades had the whole period from 2018 to 2021 to launch a diplomatic offensive charm.All events from the constitutional court, supreme court ruling and July 31 2020 signaled the futility of any domestic approaches in advocating for electoral reforms. 

Civil society too has to start escalating their pressure on multilateral institutions in ensuring that the electorate gets a free, fair and peaceful election. The deaths of Moreblessing Ali, Mboneni Ncube and victimizations of many others should hereby warrant enough urgency to start acting. 

The lack of urgency on the part of civic and political leaders is equally driving us towards the jetty edge.We should not wait until we are rigged for us to then realize that the playing field is not level.Most of the leaders in the spaces I mentioned are informed by memory of 2008. They even did exceptionally well during the 2004 when they successfully advocated for the setup of ZEC, through to GNU era when they enacted the new constitution, advocated for biometric voter registration, polling station based voter’s role and many other reforms. It is still possible for them to achieve more. All they need is to agonize less and organize more. 

Way forward (recommendations)

It is not too late for my friends in opposition and civil society to lead us out of this situation.The biggest requirement there is that to clearly define their revolutionary path to power and set forward and strategy that is thorough in implementing the suggested ideas I gave in body of the article, like engaging SADC, AU and the UN and call for their intervention and ensure reforms are implemented.Looking outwards is the only solution left as most domestic options are close to hopeless.We need a robust and effective foreign policy that suits our timeline and urgent need for change.The opposition has to start being deliberate in ensuring that the people get a free and fair election , they should do so with urgency. 

Conclusion 

The complacency and silence of the opposition as the leader of the electoral front in the mass democratic struggle pauses a risk of loss.It is not too late to start acting and ensuring that all reforms are implemented.It is time to shift methodology and start looking outward in pursuit of regional and global intervention. 

Liam Takura Kanhenga is a young public intellectual who resides in Zimbabwe