"Zimbabwe's Perilous Path: Absolute Power, Lifetime Presidency, and the Shadow of Mnangagwa's Stayism

As President Mnangagwa begins his second term, the specter of "Stayism" has cast a shadow over Zimbabwe's political landscape. While Section 91(2) of the constitution bars a president from serving more than two terms, Mnangagwa and his allies have begun to pave the way for a potential third term. This brazen maneuver has sparked debate among observers, as they assess the legality and constitutionality of the move and its implications for the country's fragile democracy.

Chip of the old block and learning from friends 

President Mnangagwa adheres to the Mugabe ideology of consolidating power at all costs; thus, it is clear that he has authoritarian tendencies similar to those of his mentor Robert Mugabe. The term "Chip of the old block" accurately characterizes Mnangagwa's increasing disdain for the constitution and his audacious adoption of dictatorial strategies.

Therefore, it is hardly surprising to read that ED is considering seeking for a third term as Zimbabwe's president. Mnangagwa is an outgrowth of authoritarianism. His regard for the constitution is minimal, and he is not ashamed to broad cast it as he goes on a mission to consolidate power. ED rose up the political ranks under the tutelage of Robert Mugabe, who cultivated a powerful personality and exploited it to solidify control within ZANU PF and the government. I will remind you of Grace Mugabe's remarks on how Bob would still rule from the grave. This was a clear and explicit declaration of Mugabe's lifetime presidency logic. The idea is always embodied in the depiction of one's irreplaceability and their presentation as a "Greatest of All Time" in their party and government. I am just frustrated by the fact most analysts and people in opposition and civil society discussing this issue are not looking at the deeper scheme but just focus on shortsighted events or just a third term. The former CCC spokesperson Promise Mkwananzi naively claimed that they as a movement peacefully foiled the third term bid , without fully taking cognizant of the broad matrix around it .

Mnangagwa appears to be following in the footsteps of his African colleagues, such Paul Biya, Yoweri Museveni, and Paul Kagame, by relying on populist strategies and personality politics to hold onto power. The 2018 statement "2030 ndenge ndichipo" by Mnangagwa provides a clear picture of Zimbabwe's future under his leadership and alludes to his aspirations for lifetime rule.

Authoritarian Consolidation

The third term discourse is clearly an obvious interest deeply enshrined in a broader plan of authoritarian consolidation. Mnangagwa wants absolute power and the first step to getting it is by getting lifetime presidency. Already with a parliamentary majority and a demobilized opposition, a constitutional amendment will be very possible. Zanu PF will have to either scrap of Section 91(2) of the constitution or change its wording to allow Mnangagwa to run for a third and possibly fourth and fifth term. His faction has already begun setting the agenda with the 2030 mantra, although we saw this coming. This plan also involves the pursuit of a dejure one party state. Mnangagwa is an avid follower and imitator of Chinese politics and clearly the one-party state agenda is part of his plans. He needs this power to continue pillaging the country's resources with impunity and continue mafia rule in the country. 

Furthermore, Zanu PF's constitution does not have term limits for a first secretary. So already, ED is clear for reelection at the next Congress. Zimbabwean political parties have an unwritten rule that an incumbent should not be contested, and the party organs are deployed to whip the branches, districts and provinces to do so. After all slate politics helps factions to consolidate and retain power and currently Mnangagwa presides over the dominant faction.

With laws like P.V.O Act, Patriotic Act and MOPA, Mnangagwa has civil society and all dissident formations under lock and key and the Amendment of 2021 gave him power to appoint judges, thus he will definitely set up a judiciary that he controls. All this creates conditions that necessitate the establishment of a one-party state presided over by a lifetime president while the beneficiary will face very little to no resistance. 

Entrenching a personality cult 

Just like in many other former liberation movements, politics is local and always decided at the grassroots/ village. understanding this dynamic Mnangagwa has used lower-level party structures, such as provinces, branches and cells, women, and youth groups, to rally support and mobilize for his initiatives. Typical examples are the 4ED formations which at some point operated as parallel structures campaigning for him in the run up to the previous congress. These groups have worked as platforms to propagate ED's successes and portray him as an effective and indispensable figure without whom the party will fail. The same approach has worked in Mnangagwa splashing out resources and money in buying influence among people within and outside ZANU PF or at least to aid recruitment of new supporters.  This grassroots strategy strengthens his influence at many levels of the party because it is these same structures that will be deployed to start the choreographed, "people's call for the president to stay on to lead the party so that he continues with the great work he is doing." These are the same claims that will be used to amputate the constitution. 

Religious leaders and faith-based groups like those of the prophecy driven white garment church have worked to build a personality cult around Mnangagwa. Some have given prophecies and claim that ED has divine right to rule the country. This is coupled with the royalization of presidency in Zimbabwe where the President is equated to Munhumutapa (an ancient shona emporor), and local indigenous faith is abused by declaring that ZANU PF and Mnangagwa are chosen by the Vadzimu/ Badimo to continue ruling all to make him feared and uncontestable because defying divine declaration leads to damnation. To remind you these same strategies were used by Robert Mugabe during his time. 

The law and (im)possibilities 

While section 92(1) of the constitution limits a president's time of service to a maximum of two terms, there is a possibility that ZANU PF and Mnangagwa will move a motion to amend the constitution either to change the wording or to repeal the law to allow the incumbent a longer stay in office. Quite sure it will be propagated as " the voice of the people" at Congress or Conference. 

However, inasmuch as a constitutional amendment is possible Mnangagwa might not benefit because section 328 of the constitution states that if a law is changed to allow the extension of a term to hold an office, the holder of the office at the time of amendment will not benefit from that change. This is a hurdle beyond factions or internal ZANU PF rules. I foresee it as one that his rivals will use to stop his bid, unless he amends that clause as well. In my view, the attempt to further amend the constitution to finalize ED's third term agenda might be the spark event that will cause his removal by force or through legal means. This could also be the one attempt that can create enough reason and motivation for civil society to reorganize itself to resist him the same way that happened to Mugabe. Within ZANU PF, Mnangagwa's ascendance showed people that it is possible to remove an overstaying president. Especially when it can possibly leave the party stronger. 

History has also showed us that when a leader tries to overstay his welcome, the people or his people will force him out. It is less than eight years ago when Mugabe was removed from power through a military coup accompanied by popular dissident action in the streets of Harare. Furthermore, Ali Bongo was removed from office in the same manner after trying to cling to power just last year. Even if he tries to use legal means, just next door in South Africa Thabo Mbeki tried to earn himself a third term and the legal system blocked him. So, these are all cases of political history that should teach Mnangagwa that an exit from power is inevitable. 

conclusively, Mnangagwa's ambition is not limited to a third term in office but a lifetime in power and wielding that power in absolute terms through undermining the law, capturing the state and entrenching a personality cult. His pursuit of this ambition is not immune to contact with his enemies. Therefore, it will lead to conflict both within and outside ZANU PF and in my view all scenarios end with him out of power. 

Liam Kanhenga is an intellectual, he writes in his own capacity.

He can be contacted on kanhengaliam@gmail.com